Fixed income market outlook 2017 during various geo political situations
• We believe that slowdown in growth (aftermath of demonetization) and expected soft inflation could probably leave room for rate cuts by the RBI, which could augur well for duration strategies in 2017. • There were credit concerns on individual companies during 2016, however, improving credit ratio seems to indicate that we broadly appear to be in a credit upgrade cycle, though it could take time for credit cycle to pick up. Anticipated fall in the lending rates post the currency swap exercise (increase in bank deposits) would help to bring down cost of capital for Indian companies, which in turn may bode well for the improvement of the credit environment and thus benefit accrual strategies. The liquidity in the banking system has improved post demonetisation which would henceforth result in lower deposit and lending rates. • Given the cash rich nature of our economy, we could see some slowdown in the overall economic activity thereby weighing on the GDP growth. • The trad